Success in life is about
asymmetry. It is about identifying the correct possibilities, that niche that
will give you your advantage to the crowd. It’s about constantly expanding your
knowledge into places that no one else dares to go. Informational asymmetry.
Knowledge asymmetry. Risk/Reward asymmetry. Skewness in outcomes. Thinking
outside the box and being not influenced by other people: Success is doing what
the failures won’t do.
For instance, in trading, success
is about finding asymmetries in the risk/reward profile of your actions. It is
about risking little and going for the money, over and over again. Day after
day. This way you have a statistical long-term advantage and even if you are
right only once every three times, your skewness provides you with sudden
boosts in your equity. So: Risk a little and make a lot. Or, risk a lot and go
for the jackpot.
Success in life is about
identifying opportunities that others do not see. How come that quite often
people look at a given business and they say “I could have done that, too. It was
so obvious.” Well, of course it is always easy in hindsight. However, to take action at the precise time, when things look the worst and are emotionally loaded, takes alot of courage and discipline. And training yourself to think in a forward-looking way, having visions of the future,
stepping away from the crowd and looking at what you can sell them tomorrow, is
not something average-Joe can do. It takes a visionary, someone who thinks
outside the box, who can step aside, have a look at the top and laugh at the
madness of crowds and be confident that it will work. Plus, it takes freedom.
Freedom, not in the ordinary sense that we know
today; But to make freedom in
your thinking and to expand on the ideas that you have. Quite often, we are so
restrained from the people around us that we do not allow ourselves to grow. Perceptional
Asymmetry.
The ancient Mexicans thought that
there is this process of domestication. That only as a child we are completely
free (and we have a huge smile on our face). Once we grow up, we get society’s
values pressed up ourselves. And because most of the time we want something
from other people and we have to live with them together, we have to comply. Suddenly,
you have to act this way; You cannot act that way. You are not allowed to just
jump up and down when you want to, there are unwritten norms. It is not polite
to just stand around and laugh at the others. The limits of other people’s
thinking are suddenly your limits and it takes an immense amount of power to
break through them. In fact, if you are hyperactive, doctors will make sure to
drug you up so that you see the world just as they do. And quite often, you
could even say that there are local territorial belief systems, which you need
to comply with.
Imagine being born in a small
village as a young and attractive lady. After a while it is explained to you
that it is completely normal for you to get married at the age of 14 (and you
should be proud of it). It is also completely normal to spend the rest of your
life in that village and serve the others. No freedom for you, no dreams, no career, no
growth. If you do not agree - domestication is the same for people, as it is for dogs: through the
feelings of pain and pleasure.
I have always restrained from
wasting immense sums of money at clubs or cafés and have always wondered about
this Incentive Asymmetry. The reason is that I was always wondering: Who is the
guy taking all that money? Where is the face behind this system here? Who is
providing the value, the service? While I am chilling here, someone has worked
his ass off identifying an opportunity, organizing a system of delivery,
teamwork, service etc. and right now is getting paid for it. Funnily, most
people never think about this side of business and just happily spend their
money where their friends do. It is more of a social phenomenon, but it is
still serving values (though the coffee you are drinking might not be the most
important one).
When it comes to selling
products, it is all about informational asymmetry. How are we to play our cards
if we do not know the profile of the values of the other person. We have to
guess, we have to test. “Can I offer you a discounted washing machine with your
PC? Would you like French fries with that?” Well, only if you give them to me
for free, because I put very little value on your additional junk food. On the
other hand, in some cases I have no idea how much the production cost of the
product is (for instance how much it costs my internet provider to give me a
50mbps line per month). In this case, my perception is formed from the initial
offer by the seller and I have to assume that this is based on some kind of
reasonable calculation. Strange, how there is always a 50% discount + bonus
scheme when I sign up today with a one year contract.
After all, success is just that –
having an asymmetrical way of thinking and having the courage to go where the
crowd does not dare to go. Through this lense, life suddenly seems so simple.
No comments:
Post a Comment